Whitefish at a crossroads: record-low cod, a tight haddock market and what it means for UK buyers.
By Eivind Hestvik Brækkan, seafood analyst, Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC).
Let’s start with the number that should be getting more attention: 2026 will see the lowest global Atlantic cod supply since the Second World War. Global cod supply is expected to fall another 7% from 2025 levels, driven by lower quotas in Norway, Russia and Iceland. Yet cod and haddock retail prices, while up 12% in the UK last year, have likely not yet fully reflected the cost pressure further up the supply chain. The full reckoning may still be ahead.
This piece is an attempt to make sense of where we are, how we got here, and what the future might look like for those of us who live and breathe whitefish.
The UK: biggest buyer in a shrinking market
For UK cod and haddock imports, 2025 told a clear story: value was up, but volumes were slightly down. The UK paid more for less, a dynamic that will only intensify in 2026.
What the data also underlines is just how dominant the UK is as a buyer. The UK accounts for roughly 25% of global Atlantic cod consumption and nearly 50% of global haddock consumption. For haddock, no other market comes close; for cod, Portugal is the other dominant buyer, and both are consolidating their positions as the global supply shrinks. That gives UK buyers influence, but it also means that when supply tightens, the UK feels it acutely, and when trade flows shift, the UK is often at the centre of the disruption.
Cod: the shrinking pie problem
Within the global cod trade, the UK and Portugal are taking larger shares of a smaller pie. Norwegian export volumes to the UK fell last year, broadly in line with the overall drop in Norwegian cod and haddock exports, so UK buyers are maintaining their share of Norwegian supply, but that supply itself is shrinking. Across the Atlantic, the US is pulling back. A weaker dollar and the spectre of tariffs are dampening US import demand, which historically has absorbed significant volumes.
China imports frozen whole cod and haddock from Russia, Norway and others, processes them into frozen fillets, and re-exports the bulk of that product to the US, UK and mainland Europe. The US has had a ban on Russian-origin cod imports for some time, and extended that ban to all Russian-origin seafood at the start of 2026. In practice, this means China can only ship non-Russian-origin product to the US, so non-Russian cod and haddock processed in China is increasingly funnelled across the Atlantic, leaving less non-Russian-origin product available for UK and European buyers via the Chinese processing chain. While Chinese-processed fillets remain available to UK buyers, the raw material behind them is increasingly of Russian rather than Norwegian origin.
A related shift is visible in Norwegian raw material exports: volumes of frozen whole cod and haddock going to China have fallen, while exports to other processing countries, particularly Vietnam, have increased. The same pattern is emerging on the import side, with US buyers diversifying away from China toward other Asian processors, a direct response to the high US tariffs on Chinese goods introduced in 2025.
Haddock: a brighter picture, but caveats apply
On haddock, the overall outlook is modestly better. Global supply could increase around 4% in 2026, driven by slightly higher Norwegian and Russian quotas. For a market as haddock-dependent as the UK, that is welcome news, though one caveat is worth watching. Norway’s historically low cod quota could indirectly constrain haddock catches too: since some cod bycatch is often unavoidable when fishing for haddock, fishermen may find their cod quota exhausted before the haddock quota is fully caught. Whether this materialises at scale in 2026 remains to be seen. As only non-Russian haddock can enter the US, that supply is increasingly absorbed by the US market, leaving less non-Russian haddock for UK buyers. UK buyers should expect continued tightness, even if aggregate supply numbers look stable.
The farmed cod factor
Norwegian farmed cod is on the rise. In 2026, farmed cod could account for around 50% of Norway’s fresh cod exports, a remarkable milestone. Volumes are growing to the UK already. Farmed cod won’t solve the supply crisis in the short term, but it introduces a genuinely new variable into UK sourcing strategies. For buyers who have historically thought of Norwegian cod as purely a wild capture story, it’s time to revisit that assumption.
The retail price gap
UK retail seafood inflation ran at just 1% in 2025, against 12% price increases for cod and haddock specifically. But the more telling comparison is with prices further up the value chain: landing prices and export prices for both cod and haddock have risen more sharply than UK retail prices over the same period. That gap cannot persist indefinitely. The cost pressure is already in the system, and with 2026 supply declining further, UK retail prices for these species have further to go. Interestingly, beef prices rose 27% over the same period, far outpacing cod and haddock, which may help their competitive position at the retail shelf.
Looking ahead
The story for 2026 is one of constraint: record-low cod supply, a tight haddock market, a US pulling back, geopolitical uncertainty affecting trade routes, and a farmed sector growing but not yet at scale. For UK buyers, the strategic question is where to source and at what price. For analysts, the key questions are where rising prices will redistribute consumption across markets and products, and whether Norway can catch its haddock quota. On top of that, the geopolitical wildcards (tariffs, Russia sanctions, and the ongoing shift in processing trade flows away from China) could yet accelerate or reverse the trade flow shifts already underway.
The cod supply situation is stark: catches at their lowest since the Second World War. For haddock, the picture is less dramatic historically, but the redirection of non-Russian haddock toward the US market means UK buyers may not feel the full benefit of the headline supply increase. There is, however, reason for cautious optimism. Norwegian cod and haddock quotas could increase in the coming years. For cod, several incoming year-classes are expected to help the stock stabilise and gradually rise. For haddock, the stock is already on an upward trend, driven by fairly good recent year-classes. When that happens, the UK, as the world’s largest haddock market and one of the leading cod markets, has much to gain.
Image: NSC