SCOTTISH AQUACULTURE NOW ECONOMICALLY MORE IMPORTANT THAN SEA FISHING

Scottish aquaculture now economically more important than sea fishing. A note by Tony Mackay, economist from Inverness:

1. Marine Scotland, which is part of the Scottish Government, recently published a report on Scotland’s Marine Economic Statistics 2020. It gives detailed statistics for 2019 and 2020 for the various industries which make up the marine sector in Scotland.
2. Those industries include fishing and aquaculture, plus seafood processing.
3. The report uses three main economic indicators:

• gross value added (GVA), which is economic output
• turnover
• employment.

4. The report estimates that the Scottish fishing industry’s economic output (GVA) in 2020 was £284 million, which was 7.3% of the marine sector total. The output of the aquaculture industry was an estimated £362 million, which was 9.3% of the total.
5. I was very surprised by these statistics because I had believed that the fishing industry was larger than aquaculture in Scotland.
6. I have therefore spent time analysing the Marine Scotland statistics, dating back to 2011. This note is a summary of my analysis.
7. The 2020 turnover estimates were fishing £512 million (4.8% of the total) and aquaculture £967 million (9.1%). Fishing employment totalled 4,300 (6.3%) and aquaculture employment 2,400 (3.5%).
8. The aquaculture GVA estimate is 1.3 times greater than that for fishing, and the aquaculture turnover estimate 1.9 times greater.
9. The Marine Scotland report also gives annual statistics dating back to 2011. The economic output (GVA) estimates for the two industries are shown in the table below. Annual economic output (GVA) (£ million) Fishing Aquaculture difference total % fish % aqua
10. The statistics are in constant 2020 prices and take account of inflation.
11. There have been some huge annual fluctuations and I found some of them very difficult to understand. Marine Scotland blame the falls in 2020 on the impacts of the coronavirus pandemics, including business closures. There were even bigger falls in 2015 and also large falls in 2018.
12. My table above shows that over the decade aquaculture accounted for 52% of the two industries combined economic output (GVA) and fishing 48%.
13. In 2011 the aquaculture share was just 43% and the fishing share 57%.
14. The fishing industry’s share was larger until 2016, with the exception of 2013. Since 2016 aquaculture’s share has been the higher of the two.
15. The 2020 statistics are not typical because of the negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemics on both industries and the Scottish economy as a whole.
16. The table shows that the economic output of the aquaculture industry nearly trebled between 2011 and 2019. In contrast, the value of the fishing output was only +30% higher.
17. I am very surprised at these change