SCOTTISH INDUSTRY LEADERS WARN OF “VERY CHALLENGING” YEAR AHEAD

Scottish industry leaders warn of “very challenging” year ahead as 2026 fishing quotas confirmed. Scotland’s fishing industry is bracing for a difficult year in 2026 as the outcomes of international quota negotiations reveal sharp reductions for several key stocks, including a major cut to Northern shelf cod.

The Shetland Fishermen’s Association (SFA) said the scale of the reductions – particularly the 44% cut to cod – will have deep economic consequences for island communities.

Daniel Lawson, SFA executive officer, said:

“UK and Scottish Government negotiators have worked hard to support sustainable fishing opportunities, and so spare the fleet – and our wider community – from the worst-case economic shocks. However, there is no doubt that 2026 will be a hard year for fishing crews across all fleet sectors.

“Our internal analysis – shared with governments in advance of negotiations – estimates that the 44% cod cut alone will mean losses of £16m+ for Shetland’s local economy next year. Numbers in government spreadsheets have real life consequences. For a population of only 23,000 folk, that economic impact will be felt strongest in communities such as Shetland – with family-owned vessels and shareholder crews.

“The irresponsible assumptions and unsupported guesswork which form the basis of this cod cut reveal the desperate need for investment in evidence-led fisheries science. Fishermen whose livelihoods depend on it deserve serious analysis of data, not arbitrary computer modelling which consistently fails to reflect what fishing crews see every day at sea.”

SFA chairman James Anderson said further negotiations would determine the full picture for the year ahead, warning that cuts were expected across “our most valuable whitefish and pelagic stocks”.

“Governments must now consider what support they can offer: because no business can survive on resilience alone,” he said. “While Shetland fish stocks will bounce back, as they always have, we must all take care to ensure that a locally owned fishing fleet is still here to help Shetlanders benefit from that rich resource. The alternative – extractive, external fleets profiting from our fish stocks while Shetlanders watch from the shore – would be a basic injustice and an unforgivable travesty.”

The Scottish Fishermen’s Federation (SFF) also said 2026 would be challenging, though it emphasised that the final deal avoided what could have been a far more damaging outcome.

Elspeth Macdonald, SFF chief executive, noted that the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) had advised a zero total allowable catch (TAC) for Northern shelf cod, leaving the whitefish fleet contemplating year-long tie-ups.

“With ICES having recommended a zero total allowable catch (TAC) for Northern shelf cod, the Scottish whitefish fleet had been contemplating having to tie up for much of the year,” she said. “We said when ICES published their advice in the autumn that there are problems with how their scientific advice is formulated, and there is work underway seeking to address that. Meantime however, we are relieved that negotiators have found a way forward in setting a TAC and agreeing a series of measures to protect the stock.

“Thanks to the work done by the Scottish and UK government negotiators, the outcome on cod, while a significant reduction from this year’s TAC that will inevitably have an impact on the sector, is less damaging than anticipated, with a balance struck between the need to allow the stock to recover, particularly in the southern North Sea, and the sustainability of the fleet.”

Ms Macdonald added that she was glad the long-running negotiations on the single herring TAC had been resolved, with the UK’s share protected.

The Scottish White Fish Producers Association (SWFPA) echoed concerns about the severity of the scientific advice and its implications for the fleet.

Mike Park, SWFPA chief executive, said:

“The year 2026 will be very challenging for the catching sector, but as a responsible industry we have to recognise the role we play in stock recovery. After all, fishermen are custodians of the seas.

“Talks this year were very challenging given the advice from ICES on the Northern cod stock, but also for other stocks such as northern saithe and ling.

“Most challenging of all was the headline advice for Northern cod which suggested zero catch. The outcome takes into consideration the downturn in this stock and the added protection it requires, especially so in the southern component.”

Despite the industry’s concerns, all three organisations stressed the importance of balancing economic survival with long-term stock health—while urging governments to recognise the social and economic weight carried by next year’s quota reductions.

Image: ©Fish Focus